Iran War Market Monitor: Which Countries Gain Or Lose From The Hormuz Crisis
The war in Iran has triggered a surge in global oil and gas prices, reshaping the performance of global equity markets.
Countries that export energy benefit from higher oil prices and improved trade balances, while energy-importing economies face rising import costs, inflation pressure, and weaker currencies.
To track this dynamic, CountryETFTracker built an Energy Exposure Monitor, ranking countries by their energy trade balance as a percentage of GDP.
This metric shows how sensitive each economy is to an energy shock.
Global Energy Exposure Map: Energy Trade Balance As % of GDP By Country
Data sources:
- • Energy trade balance data: ITC TradeMap
- • GDP data: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
- • Calculations: CountryETFTracker
Why The Energy Trade Balance Matters
Energy trade balance measures the difference between a country's energy exports and energy imports. Also known as net energy exports or net exports of fuels, this metric reveals a country's structural energy position.
When expressed as a percentage of GDP, it shows how important energy exports or imports are relative to the size of the economy.
Countries with large positive values are energy exporters vs energy importers — they typically benefit when oil prices rise.
Countries with large negative values are energy importers and tend to suffer when energy prices surge.
During geopolitical shocks such as the Iran war and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, this metric becomes a key driver of global market performance.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Monitor
Strait of Hormuz Status
CLOSED
Day 197 since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil chokepoint
Crisis Severity
Last updated: Mar 5, 2026 06:00:00 GMT
Ships Detected Today
0
↓ 100% vs 138 daily avg
Trapped in Gulf
~11,587
Locked inside strait
Waiting Outside
~2,146
Queued outside strait
Carriers Suspended
8/8
All major lines halted
Countries Most Exposed to Hormuz Crisis
88%
3.1M
73%
2.1M
64%
2.5M
40%
4.0M
14%
1.8M
5%
0.5M
Data Source: This information is sourced from hormuztracker.com and reflects real-time monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. All shipping impacts, commodity prices, and carrier status updates are regularly refreshed to provide the latest crisis intelligence.
Crude Oil Price Action Since Feb 27, 2026
Countries That Benefit Most From High Oil Prices
When oil prices surge, energy-exporting economies often outperform because energy exports represent a significant share of national income.
Countries such as Iraq, Qatar, Norway and Saudi Arabia have large positive energy trade balances, meaning their economies benefit when oil and gas prices rise.
These countries typically experience:
- • Stronger currencies — Energy revenues boost forex reserves
- • Improved fiscal balances — Governments collect more oil revenues
- • Rising equity markets — Corporate profits increase with energy prices
- • Increased sovereign revenues — State budgets expand
For investors, this often translates into stronger performance in country ETFs linked to energy exporters. The energy trade balance by country is a key indicator of which markets will benefit from rising oil prices.
Countries Most Vulnerable To High Oil Prices
Energy-importing countries tend to suffer when oil prices rise because energy imports become more expensive.
Large importers such as South Korea, Thailand, Japan and Taiwan rely heavily on imported oil and natural gas.
Higher energy prices can lead to:
- • Weaker trade balances — Import costs exceed export revenues
- • Rising inflation — Energy costs push consumer prices higher
- • Slower economic growth — Higher production costs reduce competitiveness
- • Underperformance in equity markets — Corporate profits decline
This explains why country ETFs linked to energy-importing economies often underperform during oil shocks. Understanding countries vulnerable to energy prices is critical for portfolio positioning during geopolitical crises.
Top Energy Exporters (% GDP)
Country | Energy Trade Balance (% GDP) | Country ETF |
|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 40.8% | No direct ETF |
| Qatar | 32.4% | |
| Norway | 19.1% | |
| United Arab Emirates | 17.6% | |
| Saudi Arabia | 15.9% | |
| Algeria | 15.6% | No direct ETF |
| Kazakhstan | 13.8% | No direct ETF |
| Russia | 10.1% | No direct ETF |
| Nigeria | 9.5% | No direct ETF |
| Canada | 4.6% | |
| Australia | 3.9% | |
| Colombia | 3.5% | |
| Brazil | 1.0% | |
| Indonesia | 1.0% | |
| Argentina | 0.6% | |
| United States | 0.2% |
Countries Most Vulnerable To Rising Energy Prices
Country | Energy Trade Balance (% GDP) | Country ETF |
|---|---|---|
| Thailand | -7.4% | |
| South Korea | -5.7% | |
| Singapore | -5.1% | |
| Vietnam | -4.8% | |
| Taiwan | -4.2% | |
| Ukraine | -3.9% | No direct ETF |
| Chile | -3.8% | |
| Japan | -3.6% | |
| India | -3.2% | |
| Turkey | -3.1% | |
| Hong Kong | -3.1% | |
| Belgium | -2.5% | No direct ETF |
| Greece | -2.4% | |
| Bangladesh | -2.2% | No direct ETF |
| China | -2.2% | |
| New Zealand | -2.1% | |
| Italy | -2.0% | |
| South Africa | -2.0% | |
| Spain | -1.8% | |
| Poland | -1.7% | |
| Portugal | -1.7% | No direct ETF |
| France | -1.7% | |
| Austria | -1.6% | |
| Germany | -1.5% | |
| Finland | -1.5% | |
| Peru | -1.4% | |
| Romania | -1.4% | No direct ETF |
| Ireland | -1.1% | |
| United Kingdom | -1.1% | |
| Sweden | -0.8% | |
| Israel | -0.7% | |
| Switzerland | -0.6% | |
| Netherlands | -0.5% | No direct ETF |
| Denmark | -0.5% | |
| Malaysia | -0.3% | |
| Mexico | -0.1% |
Country ETFs Performance Since The Start Of The War In Iran
The divergence between energy exporters and energy importers is often reflected in the performance of country ETFs.
Energy-exporting countries often see stronger equity performance when oil prices rise. Meanwhile, energy-importing countries tend to underperform as higher energy costs weigh on economic growth.
This table tracks how major country ETFs have performed since the start of the Iran energy shock (February 27, 2026). The impact of oil prices on countries is reflected in their ETF performance — use this data to identify which markets to overweight or underweight.
For deeper analysis, explore our ETF Performance dashboard and global heatmap.
| Country | ETF | Performance Since 2026-02-27Perf % | Energy Balance (% GDP)Energy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | |||
Trade on eToro – the easy-to-use investing app with 7000+ assets.
Your capital is at risk.
Other fees apply.
Country ETF Performance vs Energy Exposure
This scatter chart reveals the relationship between a country's energy trade balance and its equity market performance since the start of the Iran energy shock.
Countries on the right side of the chart (positive energy balance) are exporters. Countries on the left (negative energy balance) are importers.
The vertical position shows performance — higher dots indicate outperformance, lower dots indicate underperformance. The pattern reveals how energy exposure shapes market outcomes.
Country ETF Performance vs Energy Trade Balance
Correlation: 0.000 | Since 2026-02-27
Energy Shocks Are Reshaping Global Markets
Geopolitical shocks such as the Iran conflict often create a clear divide between energy exporters and importers, driving major divergences in global equity performance.
Monitoring energy exposure at the country level helps investors identify which markets may benefit — and which may struggle — during an energy crisis.
Use CountryETFTracker to track how different country ETFs respond to energy shocks and adjust your portfolio accordingly.
Frequently Asked Questions About Energy Trade & Oil Prices
Explore More Energy & Country ETF Data
Country ETF Performance
See how country ETFs are performing globally in our ETF Performance dashboard.
Global Performance Heatmap
Track country ETF performance across multiple timeframes on our interactive global heatmap.
Complete Country ETF List
Browse all available country-specific ETFs and their detailed metrics.
Global Valuations
Explore forward P/E ratios and valuation metrics for markets worldwide.
Iran War Market Monitor
The Iran War Market Monitor is a real-time financial intelligence dashboard tracking the impact of the 2026 US–Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure on global equity markets. The dashboard covers live country ETF performance ranked by energy trade balance exposure, a WTI crude oil price chart since the crisis began on February 27, 2026, and an interactive global energy heatmap. Energy-exporting nations such as Norway (ENOR), Saudi Arabia (KSA), Qatar (QAT), and Canada (EWC) structurally benefit from elevated oil prices through improved fiscal balances and currency strength. Conversely, large energy importers including South Korea (EWY), Japan (EWJ), India (INDA), Thailand (THD), and Taiwan (EWT) face widening current account deficits, higher inflation, and equity underperformance.