How has WTI crude oil performed since the Iran war started?

WTI crude oil surged after the US–Iran conflict escalated on February 28, 2026. The Strait of Hormuz closure removed approximately 20 million barrels per day from global shipping lanes — an immediate and severe supply shock that sent energy prices sharply higher.

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Day 245 Since The Start Of The War In Iran

Live Market Intelligence

Iran War Market Screener: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Impact on Oil Prices, Country ETFs & Stock Baskets

Q: Which country ETFs are most hurt by the Strait of Hormuz crisis?

Large energy importers such as South Korea (EWY), Japan (EWJ), India (INDA), Taiwan (EWT), and Thailand (THD) are most negatively affected, as higher oil prices widen their current account deficits and compress corporate margins.

Q: What is the Polymarket probability of a US–Iran ceasefire?

Real-money prediction market probabilities from Polymarket cover a US–Iran ceasefire, Hormuz traffic normalization, WTI crude reaching $150/barrel, and US naval escorts through the strait. These odds update continuously as a real-time leading indicator of geopolitical risk.

Q: Which US industries perform best when oil prices spike?

XOP (oil & gas exploration) and CRAK (oil refining) are top performers. Oil refiners Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX) benefit from wider crack spreads. Defense contractors Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Raytheon Technologies (RTX) also outperform during military escalations.

Q: How are fertilizer and defense stocks affected by the Iran war?

Approximately 49% of global urea exports transit through or near the Hormuz region — disruption benefits fertilizer producers like CF Industries (CF) and Mosaic (MOS). Defense contractors Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Kratos Defense (KTOS), and Karman Holdings (KRMN) benefit from elevated defense spending expectations.

Live dashboard tracking market impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis: WTI crude oil prices, Polymarket prediction for ceasefire and shipping normalization, country ETF performance, and US stock baskets.

WTI Crude Oil Price Live Chart — Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure

Daily OHLC candlestick chart for WTI crude oil futures (CL1!) since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began on February 27, 2026.

Current $102.00

1d -0.76%

Since the war began▲ 52.19%

Start date:

WTI Crude Oil Price

Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Since Feb 27, 2026

countryetftracker.com

source countryetftracker.com

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Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters

On a normal day, approximately 20% of the world's crude oil supply — around 20 million barrels — transits through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the single most important oil chokepoint on the planet. Any disruption sends immediate shockwaves through global energy markets, inflation expectations, and equity valuations worldwide.

Polymarket Odds: Iran Ceasefire, Hormuz Normalization & Crude Oil at $150

Real-time prediction market probabilities from Polymarket for the four most market-relevant geopolitical outcomes: a US–Iran ceasefire, normalization of Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic, WTI crude oil reaching $150/barrel, and US Navy escorts through Hormuz.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal by April 30

Probability that commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes before April 30, 2026.

US–Iran Ceasefire by April 15

Market-implied probability of a US–Iran ceasefire agreement before April 15, 2026.

Crude Oil Hits $150 by End of March

Prediction market odds of WTI crude oil (CL) reaching $150/barrel before March 31, 2026.

US Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz by March 31

Probability that US Navy escorts a commercial vessel through the Strait of Hormuz before March 31, 2026.

Global Country ETF Performance Heatmap Since Iran War

Interactive world map showing country ETF winners (green) and losers (red) since the crisis began. Energy exporters benefit from higher oil prices; importers face rising costs. Toggle between map and bar chart views.

Performance

-43.4%

+40.1%

countryetftracker.com

ETF Performance vs Energy Trade Balance: Who Wins and Who Loses from the Oil Shock?

Scatter chart plotting each country's ETF return (since Feb 27, 2026) against its energy trade balance as a percentage of GDP.

Start date (DD/MM/YYYY):

Country ETF Performance vs Energy Trade Balance

Correlation: 0.054 | Since 2026-02-27

Country ETF Tracker

Country ETF Performance Since The Start Of The War In Iran vs Energy Trade Balance

Correlation: 0.054 | Since 2026-02-27

countryetftracker.com

source countryetftracker.com

Click on any dot to view details

Best & Worst US Industries Since The Iran War Began

Performance ranking of US industry ETFs since the Iran war began. Oil refiners (CRAK) see widening profit margins as diesel and gasoline prices outperform crude oil, creating favorable crack spreads. However, airlines (JETS) and transportation (IYT) face severe headwinds: jet fuel costs represent 20–30% of airline operating expenses. Gold Miners (GDX) also see their input costs soaring.

🏆 5 Best Performing US Industries

📉 5 Worst Performing US Industries

Iran War Stock Baskets: Oil Refiners, Airlines, Fertilizers & Cruise Lines

Normalized performance of individual stocks in the four sectors most directly affected by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Oil refiners benefit from wider crack spreads; airlines and cruise lines suffer from rising jet fuel costs; fertilizer producers are exposed to Hormuz-dependent urea and ammonia trade flows. Select a basket to explore stock-level returns since Feb 27, 2026.

Oil Refiners Performance Since The Start Of Iran War

Oil Refiners

U.S. oil refiners see their profit margins rising as diesel and gasoline prices outperform crude, implying a wider crack spread. This creates a favorable profit environment for refining operations.

countryetftracker.com

MPCMarathon Petroleum

VLOValero Energy

PSXPhillips 66

DINOHF Sinclair

PBFPBF Energy

source countryetftracker.com

Performance indexed to 0% since the war began on 2026-02-27. Click a ticker in the legend to open the stock detail panel. Source: countryetftracker.com

Hormuz 'Reopen' vs. 'Closed' Stock Portfolios

Equally-weighted baskets since Feb 27, 2026 close

countryetftracker.com

Hormuz "Closed" Basket+23.90%

TickerNameSince Feb 27

Hormuz "Reopen" Basket-10.98%

TickerNameSince Feb 27

Source: countryetftracker.com — Data since Feb 27, 2026

About the Iran War Market Screener

The Iran War Market Screener is a live financial intelligence dashboard aggregating market signals related to the US–Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most strategically critical oil chokepoint — approximately 20% of global petroleum supplies and 25% of global LNG exports transit through it every day.

The dashboard integrates WTI crude oil candlestick prices, prediction market probabilities from Polymarket (covering ceasefire odds, Hormuz normalization, $150 crude oil, and US naval escort scenarios), country ETF performance data cross-referenced with energy trade balance metrics, and thematic stock baskets for sectors with direct exposure.

Energy-exporting nations such as Norway (ENOR), Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Canada (EWC) are structurally positioned to benefit from elevated oil prices. Conversely, large energy importers including South Korea (EWY), Japan (EWJ), Thailand (THD), Taiwan (EWT), and Vietnam (VNM) face increased input cost pressures that weigh on equity valuations and currency stability.

For a broader analysis of global market rotation, visit CountryETFTracker or explore the Iran War Market Monitor.

Frequently Asked Questions: Iran War & Market Impact

Answers are generated from live market data — figures update automatically as prices change.

How has WTI crude oil performed since the Iran war began?▼

Since the war began on Feb 28, 2026, USO (US Oil ETF, WTI proxy) has gained 105.2% (+105.2%). The Strait of Hormuz closure removed ~20 million barrels per day from global shipping lanes — an immediate and severe supply shock. Track the exact price movement in real time using the candlestick chart at the top of this page.

Which country ETFs benefit most from the Iran war and oil price spike?▼

Based on live data since the war began on Feb 27, 2026, the top 3 performing country ETFs are: Taiwan (EWT): +40.1%, Colombia (COLO): +23.5%, Poland (EPOL): +17.3%. These are predominantly energy-exporting economies that earn more from higher oil revenues and benefit from improved fiscal and current account balances.

Which country ETFs are most hurt by the Strait of Hormuz crisis?▼

Based on live data since the war began on Feb 27, 2026, the 3 worst performing country ETFs are: Indonesia (EIDO): -43.4%, Turkey (TUR): -24.3%, South Africa (EZA): -21.5%. These are predominantly energy-importing economies where higher oil prices widen current account deficits and compress corporate margins.

What is the Polymarket probability of a US–Iran ceasefire?▼

The live Polymarket embeds above show real-money prediction market probabilities for: a US–Iran ceasefire, Hormuz traffic normalization, WTI crude reaching $150/barrel, and US naval escorts through the strait. These odds update continuously and serve as a real-time leading indicator of geopolitical risk sentiment.

Which US industries perform best when oil prices spike?▼

Based on the live industry leaderboard above, XOP (oil & gas exploration) and CRAK (oil refining) are among the top performers. Oil refiners — Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 — benefit from wider crack spreads. See the full ranking in the Best & Worst US Industries section above.

What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter for markets?▼

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Approximately 20% of the world's crude oil and 25% of global LNG transits through it daily. Any disruption — blockade, mining, or military threats — creates an immediate global oil supply shock with cascading effects on inflation, equity markets, currency valuations, and geopolitical risk premiums.

How do airlines and cruise lines perform during the oil shock?▼

Airlines and cruise lines are among the most negatively impacted sectors. Jet fuel represents 20–30% of airline operating costs; cruise lines spend 12–15% on fuel. Check the Airlines and Cruise Lines baskets in the Stock Baskets section above for live performance of United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, Carnival Corporation, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Royal Caribbean.

How are fertilizer and defense stocks affected by the Iran war?▼

~49% of global urea exports transit through or near the Hormuz region — disruption benefits producers like CF Industries (CF) and Mosaic (MOS). Defense contractors (LMT, NOC, RTX, KTOS, KRMN) benefit from increased geopolitical risk and elevated defense spending expectations. See both baskets in the Stock Baskets section above for live price performance.