Global Equity Market Overview

As of June 25, 2026 — the final week of H1 2026 — the global equity map reflects the confluence of three major themes: the AI semiconductor supercycle (still running), the post-Hormuz oil glut (newly dominant), and a pair of Latin American political re-ratings (Colombia confirmed, Peru still live). The MSCI ACWI (ACWI) is up +9.52% year-to-date. The S&P 500 (SPY) has returned +7.64%. The MSCI EM (EEM) is up +24.30% — but that headline number is overwhelmingly driven by Korea and Taiwan.

The Fed remains on hold: Polymarket prices a 79.2% probability of zero rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a Fed that is watching inflation, monitoring oil, and resisting Trump's political pressure to ease. US recession probability: 11.5% — a soft landing remains the base case.

Best Performing Country ETFs YTD — June 25, 2026

Worst Performing Country ETFs YTD

Theme 1 — The AI Semiconductor Trade Still Dominates

South Korea's iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) at +109.09% YTD and Taiwan's iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) at +65.65% remain the defining trades of 2026. Both have softened from their May peaks (EWY touched +120%, EWT +68%) as semiconductor stocks consolidated, but both continue to hold extraordinary YTD gains driven by Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC's AI chip supply chain positioning.

The AI country cluster — Netherlands (EWN +19.75% via ASML, Nebius, ASM, BESI), Austria (EWO +19.40% via AT&S substrates), Finland (EFNL +11.59% via Nokia) — continues to compound as secondary expressions of the same AI infrastructure buildout thesis.

Theme 2 — The Post-Hormuz Rotation: Energy Exporters Sold, Importers Recovering

Norway's ENOR has declined from +32% YTD to +10.39% as oil fell 25%+ from peak after the June 14 Hormuz deal. ENOR is now -7.81% since the Iran war began — the war that it was supposed to benefit from has produced a net negative return for the fund on a war-duration basis.

Saudi Arabia (KSA, +3.90% YTD) and Kuwait (KWT, -4.65% YTD) reflect the same dynamic — oil at $81 versus oil above $100 is a direct earnings compression for these markets.

On the other side: Indonesia (EIDO, -36.23% YTD) is beginning its recovery from the deepest Iran war wound of any country ETF. India (INDA, -8.37% YTD) remains the most expensive energy-importer EM — problematic for re-entry timing even with oil falling. Thailand (THD, +16.45% YTD) has handled the energy shock better than most given Delta Electronics' AI demand offsetting the energy headwind.

Theme 3 — Latin American Political Re-Rating

Colombia (COLO, +17.99% YTD) is the cleanest political re-rating trade active in June. De la Espriella won the June 20-21 runoff. The Milei playbook has been confirmed: right-wing outsider wins in a deep-value market, policy re-rating begins. COLO at +17.99% YTD still prices a substantial political risk discount from the Petro era — the second leg of the re-rating has further to run if the new government delivers on energy and pension reform reversals.

Peru (EPU, +15.12% YTD) is in a similar position — the Fujimori/Sánchez race was still live as of the most recent data, with copper price direction providing a parallel driver.

Theme 4 — The European Underperformers

Germany (EWG, -3.02% YTD) and Denmark (EDEN, -3.99% YTD) are the notable European laggards. Germany's structural drag — legacy auto, energy-intensive manufacturing, Volkswagen, BASF — has not resolved even with oil falling. Novo Nordisk's difficulties continue to weigh on Denmark (EDEN). France (EWQ, +0.69% YTD) has barely moved. The UK (EWU, +4.71% YTD) underperforms despite its defensive qualities.

The European outperformers — Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Spain, Greece — all share a common characteristic: concentrated exposure to a specific re-rating theme (AI for EWN/EWO, recovery value for GREK/EWP, defence/reform for EPOL).

Key Takeaways

1. Korea (EWY +109%) and Taiwan (EWT +65.65%) remain the dominant global equity trades of 2026. AI capex has not slowed. HBM pricing cycles are multi-year.

2. The energy trade has fully reversed. ENOR is -7.8% since the war began. Oil at $81 versus $108 peak is a 25% compression in the primary earnings driver for Norway, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

3. Colombia's election of De la Espriella on June 20-21 confirms the Latin American political re-rating. COLO +18% YTD with the second policy-delivery leg still ahead.

4. The Fed is not cutting. Polymarket: 79.2% probability of zero cuts in 2026. This keeps USD firm, EM currencies under pressure (EIDO, INDA), and US equity multiples elevated relative to international peers.

5. Indonesia (EIDO, -36.23%) remains the most damaged country ETF in the database. The Hormuz deal and lower oil provide structural relief, but governance headwinds pre-date the war and do not resolve with peace.

Track all country ETF performance live at countryetftracker.com. Full global performance table at countryetftracker.com/compare.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which country ETFs are performing best in June 2026?

As of June 25, the global YTD leaders are South Korea (EWY +109.09%), Taiwan (EWT +65.65%), Netherlands (EWN +19.75%), Austria (EWO +19.40%), Colombia (COLO +17.99%), Japan (EWJ +16.04%), Peru (EPU +15.12%), and Greece (GREK +14.25%). The dominant theme is the AI semiconductor supply chain — EWY and EWT directly, with EWN, EWO and EFNL as secondary European expressions. The secondary theme is Latin American political re-rating (COLO, EPU).

Why is Norway's ENOR down despite being a top performer earlier in 2026?

ENOR peaked at approximately +32% YTD in April 2026 when the Hormuz blockade drove Brent crude above $100. The June 14 Iran deal to reopen Hormuz sent oil down more than 25% from peak to approximately $81. The IEA simultaneously warned of a potential global supply glut. ENOR, anchored by Equinor (which derives the majority of its earnings from Brent crude), has now lost all its war-era gains — sitting at +10.39% YTD and -7.81% since the war began. The energy trade that ENOR was built on has fully reversed.