On March 30, 2026, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Equity markets globally had priced six weeks of war — the worst oil supply shock since 1973, a Strait of Hormuz blockade removing 12 million barrels per day, and a global inflation scare that had pushed recession probabilities above 36%. The ceasefire announcement began unwinding all of it simultaneously.

In the 37 days since March 30, ten country ETFs have gained between 16% and 56%.

This is the full scorecard, the anatomy of each trade, and the framework for what these 10 positions mean from here.

The Full Ceasefire Trade Scorecard

Performance from March 30, 2026 close through May 6, 2026:

ACWI benchmark over the same period: approximately +12%. EWY outperformed the global benchmark by 43 percentage points in 37 days.

Three Clusters, One Trigger

The top 10 is not a homogeneous list. Examined by the underlying driver, three distinct trade clusters emerge — each with a different fundamental logic and a different outlook going forward.

Cluster 1 — AI Semiconductor Supply Chain (EWY, EWT, EWN, EFNL, SPY)

Five of the top 10 are driven primarily by the AI semiconductor earnings cycle, with the ceasefire functioning as the removal of a headwind rather than the creation of a tailwind.

South Korea (EWY, +55.57%) is the most extreme case in the dataset. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF entered the ceasefire period with three simultaneous catalysts converging: a 7.51x forward P/E (58.4% discount to ACWI), 98% energy import dependence that the Hormuz reopening directly resolved, and an AI memory supercycle — Samsung (21.93% weight) posted Q1 2026 operating profit of KRW 57.2 trillion (+8x YoY), while SK Hynix (22.27%) reported KRW 37.6 trillion (+5x YoY). No other market had all three forces converging simultaneously. The KOSPI broke 7,000 for the first time in its history this week, closing at 7,384. AUM in EWY has grown to $20.91 billion.

Taiwan (EWT, +37.14%) delivered the second-largest return, driven by TSMC's Q1 2026 earnings confirming AI data centre demand exceeding production capacity. TSMC represents 20.6% of EWT's portfolio. The ceasefire removed the residual energy cost uncertainty; TSMC's earnings provided the fundamental acceleration. EWT hit all-time highs at $94.57, with AUM growing to $9.14 billion.

Netherlands (EWN, +18.55%) is the most analytically underappreciated trade in the top 10. ASML Holding represents 22.7% of the iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF — the largest single-stock weight of any ETF on this list outside of the pure AI chips. ASML manufactures the EUV lithography machines that every advanced semiconductor fab in the world — TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix — uses to produce sub-7nm chips. When AI semiconductor demand accelerates to the point that TSMC's CoWoS packaging is sold out through 2027, ASML's forward order book expands proportionally. EWN's +18.55% is essentially an upstream ASML call option, expressed through a country ETF. The Netherlands at 19.59x forward P/E (an 8.4% premium to the ACWI) trades at a premium precisely because of ASML's monopoly positioning.

Finland (EFNL, +16.05%) sits at the intersection of two trends: Nokia (19.1% weight) benefits from the AI-driven network infrastructure buildout, and Nordea (17.5%) — the largest Nordic bank — has benefited from the broader European financial re-rating post-war. Neste (5.2%), Finland's renewable energy company, gained from the energy transition narrative reinforced by Hormuz vulnerability. EFNL's AUM remains small ($41M), but its +16.05% return across the ceasefire period reflects the concentration of its portfolio in exactly the sectors that benefited from the macro shift.

United States (SPY, +15.96%) reached $732.86 with the S&P 500 at all-time highs. Nvidia leads at 7.8% of SPY, followed by Apple (6.6%), Microsoft (5.0%) and Amazon (4.3%). The Fed remains on hold — Polymarket assigns 99%+ probability of no change at upcoming meetings. US recession probability has declined to 22.5% (Polymarket), down from a peak above 36% during the war. SPY at 21.50x forward P/E trades at a 19% premium to the ACWI — the most expensive major equity market in the world — yet continues to make new highs as AI earnings justify the multiple.

Cluster 2 — Geopolitical De-Escalation (EIS, EWO, TUR)

Three ETFs in the top 10 are driven by geopolitical risk premium removal — independent of or in addition to the energy/AI trade.

Israel (EIS, +23.69%) is the clearest pure geopolitical de-escalation trade in the dataset. The iShares MSCI Israel ETF captured not one but two simultaneous risk premium removals: the Iran war ceasefire and Trump's explicit prohibition of Israeli bombing of Lebanon — a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced on the same day as the Hormuz reopening. EIS hit all-time highs at $136.34. The fund holds 124 securities led by Teva (9.2%), Bank Leumi (8.6%), Bank Hapoalim (7.7%), Tower Semiconductor (5.7%) and Elbit Systems (5.3%). At 13.59x forward P/E — a 24.8% discount to the ACWI — Israel remained undervalued even after the +23.69% ceasefire rally, with geopolitical risk still embedded in the multiple. AUM stands at $983 million.

Austria (EWO, +17.18%) is one of the least-discussed but most analytically interesting trades in the top 10. The iShares MSCI Austria ETF is dominated by three positions: Erste Group Bank (19.6%), Bawag Group (13.2%) and OMV (10.5%). Austrian banks have disproportionate exposure to Central and Eastern European economies — Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania — that were all under significant energy cost pressure during the war. The ceasefire removed that risk simultaneously. OMV's partial recovery from oil price compression added a third catalyst. EWO at 9.59x forward P/E — a 46.9% discount to the ACWI — remains deeply undervalued even after +17.18%. AUM is only $130M, making this one of the smallest-AUM ETFs in the top 10.

Turkey (TUR, +16.36%) is the energy importer narrative in its most acute EM form. Turkey imports nearly all of its energy and had been facing an inflation spiral driven by TRY depreciation and rising oil import costs throughout the war period. The Hormuz reopening collapsed TRY-denominated energy costs, reducing the inflation trajectory that was constraining Turkish monetary policy. Turkey at 7.46x forward P/E — the cheapest major country ETF in the world, fractionally below Korea's 7.51x — had the largest valuation compression potential of any market. The +16.36% ceasefire gain has not changed the fundamental cheapness: Turkey remains at a 58.7% discount to the ACWI.

Cluster 3 — Deep-Value European Financial Re-Rating (GREK, EWI)

Two ETFs represent a distinct European trade: the re-rating of deeply discounted banking systems as the region's macro backdrop improved simultaneously with the war resolution.

Greece (GREK, +19.79%) is the most structurally interesting European ETF in the top 10. The Global X MSCI Greece ETF has 34 holdings dominated entirely by Greek banks: National Bank of Greece (15.0%), Eurobank (11.8%), Piraeus Bank (10.3%), Alpha Bank (9.2%). This is effectively a Greek banking index. Greek banks — which had been the most distressed in Europe for a decade following the 2010-2015 sovereign debt crisis — have undergone a complete NPL cleanup and capital rebuild. The war period's energy shock threatened to reverse that progress by compressing Greek GDP (Greece imports 78% of its energy). The ceasefire removed that threat simultaneously with GREK trading at 9.03x forward P/E — a 50.0% discount to the ACWI. The +19.79% rally is a re-rating of the discount, not a bubble. AUM at $257M remains modest relative to the market's structural improvement.

Italy (EWI, +15.94%) mirrors the Greek thesis at larger scale and lower concentration. The iShares MSCI Italy ETF has 32 holdings led by UniCredit (14.8%), Enel (12.9%), Intesa Sanpaolo (12.9%), ENI (5.7%) and Leonardo (LDO.MI, 3.9%). UniCredit and Intesa together represent 27.7% of EWI — making this a banking-dominated ETF that benefits from the same European financial re-rating narrative. The addition of Enel (Europe's largest utility) and ENI (Italy's integrated oil major) adds both energy exposure and defensive yield characteristics. EWI at 12.24x forward P/E — a 32.3% discount to ACWI — remains one of Europe's cheapest large equity markets despite the +15.94% ceasefire gain.

What Unifies the Top 10

Examining the list as a whole, one common factor cuts across all three clusters: every ETF in the top 10 entered the ceasefire period at a significant discount to fair value, whether from valuation compression (EWY, TUR, GREK, EWO, EWI), war-period underperformance (EWY, EWT, EIS), or both.

The sole exception — Netherlands (EWN) at 19.59x and SPY at 21.50x — both carry premiums justified by structural AI earnings monopolies (ASML and US megacap tech respectively). These are the "quality at a premium" trades in the list; all others are "cheap with a catalyst."

This is the analytical framework that determines outlook:

• Cheap with a catalyst fully priced: GREK (9.03x), EWO (9.59x), TUR (7.46x) — if the peace deal does not formalize, these markets consolidate. The valuation floor is low, but the upside catalyst (formal Iran deal, sanctions relief) remains incomplete. Polymarket assigns only 43.5% probability to a peace deal by June 30.

• AI earnings growth not yet priced: EWY (7.51x), EWT (20.97x), EWN (19.59x) — Samsung's $1 trillion market cap, SK Hynix's sold-out capacity, TSMC's CoWoS backlog through 2027 and ASML's forward order book are not peace trade positions. They are fundamental earnings positions that will be re-evaluated at Q2 2026 earnings in July. The peace trade merely removed the headwind.

• Macro re-rating pending: EIS (13.59x), EWI (12.24x), EFNL (17.86x) — still trade at discounts despite record gains, with structural cases for further compression if the macro backdrop continues to improve.

The Context: What Hasn't Rallied

The ceasefire trade has a shadow — the ETFs that didn't participate. From the same March 30 base, energy exporters have been the relative underperformers:

Norway (ENOR): +8.5% since Feb 27 war base, likely less since March 30 as oil declined Saudi Arabia (KSA): +3.3% since Feb 27 Brazil (EWZ): +2.8% since Feb 27

These are the exact ETFs that led during the March war peak. The full inversion of the trade is confirmed in the data.

The ACWI gained approximately +12% from March 30 — every ETF in the top 10 has outperformed the global benchmark by at least 4 percentage points over 37 trading days.

Live performance data, updated daily, at countryetftracker.com. Compare the full ceasefire trade across all 43 country ETFs at countryetftracker.com/compare. Valuation context at countryetftracker.com/valuation.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did South Korea (+55.57%) rally so much more than Taiwan (+37.14%) despite both being AI semiconductor markets?

Three factors produced Korea's outsized outperformance. First, EWY entered the ceasefire at 7.51x forward P/E vs EWT at 20.97x — a 13.5x multiple gap. The same earnings improvement produces greater price movement in a deeply discounted market. Second, Korea's energy import dependence (98%) is directly comparable to Taiwan's, but Korea's industrial base — POSCO steel, LG Chem, Samsung SDI — has higher direct energy cost intensity than Taiwan's semiconductor-only economy, meaning the oil price reversal had a larger fundamental impact on Korean margins. Third, Samsung's $1 trillion market cap milestone and its Q1 operating profit of KRW 57.2 trillion (+8x YoY) generated a Korea-specific narrative that attracted institutional capital independent of the Taiwan story.

Why is the Netherlands (EWN) in the top 10?

ASML Holding represents 22.7% of EWN — the largest single position in any ETF on this list outside of EWY/EWT's top holdings. ASML manufactures the EUV lithography machines that are the upstream bottleneck in all advanced semiconductor production globally. When TSMC reports sold-out CoWoS capacity through 2027, ASML's forward order book expands mechanically. EWN's +18.55% since March 30 is structurally an ASML rally expressed through a country ETF.

What does the peace deal probability mean for these positions?

Polymarket assigns 43.5% probability to a formal US-Iran peace deal by June 30, 26.5% by May 31, and 72% by December 31. For Cluster 2 (EIS, EWO, TUR), a formal deal is the catalyst for further re-rating — without it, valuations consolidate near current levels. For Cluster 1 (EWY, EWT, EWN, EFNL, SPY), the AI earnings cycle operates independently of the deal timeline — Q2 earnings from Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC in July are the next major catalyst regardless of geopolitical resolution. For Cluster 3 (GREK, EWI), the macro case improves gradually with each step toward formal deal resolution and European economic stability.

Are any of these ETFs still cheap after 37 days of gains?

Yes — the majority. EWY at 7.51x, TUR at 7.46x, EWO at 9.59x, GREK at 9.03x, EWI at 12.24x and EIS at 13.59x all remain at discounts of 24-59% to the MSCI ACWI (18.07x). The rally has compressed discounts but has not eliminated them. The markets that started cheapest are still the cheapest in the world after gaining 16-56%. The exceptions are EWN (19.59x premium) and SPY (21.50x premium) — both justified by AI monopoly earnings but offering no valuation cushion.