The Global X MSCI Colombia ETF (COLO) surged +8.8% on June 1 — its best day in six years — when Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round of Colombia's presidential election, setting up a June 21 runoff against leftist Iván Cepeda. In the two weeks since, the rally has not stopped. COLO has gained approximately +16% over the last month, making Colombia the 6th best-performing country ETF globally year-to-date at +20.34%.
Reuters confirmed on June 11 that De la Espriella leads Cepeda in pre-runoff polling. The Atlantic Council describes the contest as "far right against the far left." The BBC puts it simply: "pro-Trump rival vs leftist senator." The market is pricing one outcome — and it is not Cepeda.
The Performance Picture
| Period | COLO Return |
|---|---|
| YTD (Jan 1 → June 11, 2026) | +20.34% |
| Last ~30 days | ~+16% |
| 1-Year | +45.44% |
| 3-Year | +96.29% |
| Since Iran War (Feb 27) | +10.20% |
COLO at +20.34% YTD ranks alongside the global top performers — outpacing the MSCI ACWI (+10.13%), SPY (+8.19%), and every major European country ETF. The 1-year return of +45.44% reflects a market in genuine re-rating mode. The 3-year return of +96.29% tells the full story: despite four years of Petro headwinds, Colombian equities have nearly doubled over the medium term, underpinned by commodity revenues, banking resilience and a valuation base that was historically depressed.
| Country | ETF | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Norway | ENOR | +25.6% |
| Netherlands | EWN | +22.3% |
| Colombia | COLO | +20.3% |
| Austria | EWO | +16.9% |
| MSCI ACWI | ACWI | +10.1% |
| Argentina | ARGT | +7.2% |
| Brazil | EWZ | +9.6% |
The Election Setup: Everything Rides on June 21
Colombia's presidential runoff on June 21 pits Abelardo de la Espriella — a lawyer, Trump admirer, tough-on-crime outsider — against Iván Cepeda, a left-wing senator who carries the full endorsement of outgoing President Gustavo Petro. Reuters (June 11) reports that De la Espriella leads Cepeda in the most recent pre-runoff polls.
De la Espriella's candidacy is structurally market-friendly across the two sectors that dominate COLO's portfolio:
Energy sector: Petro announced plans to halt new oil and gas exploration licences during his tenure, placing Ecopetrol — which represents a substantial portion of COLO's portfolio — under sustained uncertainty over future production growth. De la Espriella has signalled a reversal of the anti-fossil fuel stance, which would immediately re-open Colombia's exploration licensing programme and restore Ecopetrol's medium-term revenue trajectory.
Financial sector: Petro's pension reform — redirecting private pension contributions to the public "Colpensiones" system — threatened the fee income model of Bancolombia and affiliated financial conglomerates that together represent the majority of COLO's top holdings. A De la Espriella government would shelve or reverse the pension reform, removing a multi-year overhang on Colombia's largest financial institution.
The Milei Template — And Why June 21 Is the Key Test
The comparison to Argentina's Milei trade is analytically exact. In October 2023, Javier Milei won Argentina's first round. The ARGT ETF surged. When Milei won the November 2023 runoff, ARGT surged again — and then again as policy delivery confirmed the re-rating narrative. Colombia is following the same script: first-round win (+8.8% in one day), pre-runoff polling lead (continued rally), runoff (the critical confirmation trade on June 21).
The differences are also real. Milei had a clear majority mandate. De la Espriella faces a Cepeda campaign that has Petro's institutional backing and access to outgoing government resources. The Petro government's move to cast doubt on first-round results — widely reported — adds procedural uncertainty. A Cepeda victory on June 21 would partially reverse COLO's recent gains.
Valuation: Still Among the Cheapest Markets in the World
| Metric | COLO |
|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 8.74x |
| vs ACWI | -52% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.59% |
| AUM | $173.6M |
| Holdings | 30 |
| Expense Ratio | 0.62% |
| Current Price | $42.89 (June 11) |
Even after a +20% YTD move, Colombia at 8.74x forward P/E remains one of the three cheapest markets in the global database — alongside South Korea (8.35x) and Brazil (8.22x). The 6.59% dividend yield reflects the compressed price base accumulated under four years of Petro governance. A re-rating toward Latin American peers — Brazil at 8.22x (but with different political context), Chile at 13.62x, Peru at 13.90x — would imply substantial additional upside from current levels if De la Espriella wins and delivers policy change.
Performance Comparison: COLO vs EPU vs ARGT vs EWZ
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What Happens After June 21
If De la Espriella wins: The Milei second-leg trade activates. COLO's 52% valuation discount to ACWI begins to compress as the energy exploration freeze ends, the pension reform threat evaporates, and foreign direct investment returns to Colombia's oil and gas sector. The June seasonality (historically -0.51% average, 38.9% win rate) has already been overridden by the political catalyst in 2026 (COLO -4.53% in June so far this month before the latest rally). A second-leg catalyst on June 21 would override seasonal headwinds further.
If Cepeda wins: The market partially reverses. The +8.8% first-round surge and subsequent rally reflected a De la Espriella premium — if Cepeda wins, that premium unwinds. COLO would likely give back 6-10% of its recent gains, though the 8.74x valuation floor provides some downside buffer.
The binary is clean. The date is known. The market is positioned for one outcome.
Track COLO live at countryetftracker.com/country-detail?ticker=COLO. Latin America comparison at countryetftracker.com/compare.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Colombia's COLO ETF up +16% in the last month?
COLO's monthly surge tracks directly to the June 1 first-round presidential election result, in which right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella — a Trump admirer and tough-on-crime lawyer — won the most votes, setting up a June 21 runoff. Reuters confirmed on June 11 that De la Espriella leads leftist rival Iván Cepeda in pre-runoff polling. Markets are pricing the potential end of four years of President Gustavo Petro's left-wing government, which had imposed an oil exploration halt and pension reform that directly weighed on COLO's top holdings in energy (Ecopetrol) and financials (Bancolombia).
Is Colombia the next Milei trade?
The structural parallel is analytically exact: right-wing outsider wins first round against left-wing establishment candidate in a market priced at deep value (COLO 8.74x forward P/E, -52% discount to ACWI), following years of left-wing government that accumulated political risk discount in equity valuations. Argentina's ARGT ETF followed this script in 2023. The critical test is June 21 — De la Espriella must win the runoff to confirm the second leg. If Cepeda wins, the trade partially reverses. The date and binary outcome make Colombia the clearest country-level political trade in global equity markets this month.