Global equity markets entered the fourth week of the Iran war in a state of acute uncertainty — and the country ETF data for the week of March 20–27 reflects precisely that ambiguity. Trump's statement that operations may be "winding down" lifted commodity and emerging market assets sharply, while Iran's categorical rejection of US ceasefire terms on March 25 kept geopolitical risk premiums elevated for conflict-zone markets. The result was the most differentiated weekly return profile since the war began: a +10 percentage point spread between the best and worst country ETF in a single week.
The macro backdrop for the week included Brent crude holding above $100 despite the wind-down rhetoric, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) falling -1.30% on continued stagflation concerns (down -6.13% YTD as of March 27), and the MSCI ACWI declining -0.73% week-on-week. Against this global backdrop of equity weakness, the country ETFs showing positive weekly returns were almost exclusively commodity exporters, conflict-zone bounces, or ceasefire-optionality markets.
All data sourced from CountryETFTracker.com.
Global Equity Market Overvie
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The week of March 20–27 was characterised by three overlapping macro signals that drove cross-country return dispersion to its highest level in months:
Signal 1 — Trump wind-down language. CNBC and DW both reported on March 21 that Trump described US operations in Iran as potentially "winding down" while simultaneously threatening Iranian power plants if Hormuz is not reopened. The contradictory signals produced a risk-on bias in commodity markets and a conditional bounce in conflict-zone assets.
Signal 2 — Iran's counter-offer. NPR reported on March 25 that Iran rejected Trump's proposal and set five conditions, including war reparations. The counter-offer confirmed that a ceasefire is not imminent — keeping oil prices elevated and maintaining the structural pressure on energy-importing country ETFs.
Signal 3 — SPY continues its decline. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell -1.30% on the week and is now down -6.13% YTD — the worst performance of any developed market country ETF in the universe. The combination of oil shock inflation, Fed rate hike probability at 50% by October, and deteriorating corporate earnings guidance has made the US market one of the underperformers of 2026, a dramatic reversal from its 2024 and 2025 dominance.
Best Performing Country ETFs: Week of March 2
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| Rank | Country | ETF | 1-Week Return | YTD Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | EWZ | +5.08% | +15.96% |
| 2 | 🇱🇦 Latin America | ILF | +4.71% | +12.07% |
| 3 | 🇦🇪 UAE | UAE | +4.35% | -4.77% |
| 4 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | EWW | +4.04% | +4.85% |
| 5 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | KSA | +3.70% | +4.75% |
| 6 | 🇵🇪 Peru | EPU | +3.55% | +6.30% |
| 7 | 🇮🇪 Ireland | EIRL | +1.75% | -8.50% |
| 8 | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | VNM | +1.86% | -12.29% |
| 9 | 🇹🇭 Thailand | THD | +2.06% | +11.51% |
| 10 | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | EIDO | +2.02% | -17.51% |
Brazil's +5.08% is the standout of the week and has a specific catalyst: the Ibovespa crossed 185,000 on Wednesday, March 26, driven by Petrobras surging on Brent above $100 and a risk-on bounce on ceasefire speculation. Invezz reported the move in real time as Brazil's benchmark "jumped 2% on ceasefire hopes." The week's gain adds to EWZ's already-strong +15.96% YTD, further cementing Brazil's status as the stealth winner of the current macro regime.
The UAE's +4.35% represents the most significant rotation signal of the week. The iShares MSCI UAE ETF (UAE) has been in bear market territory since February 27, absorbing Dubai's -20% equity market decline and the conflict-zone risk premium. Its sharp weekly recovery — better than every other country ETF except Brazil and the Latin America basket — suggests markets are beginning to price wind-down probability into the Gulf's most economically diversified market.
| Country | ETF | Performance Since 2026-02-27Perf % | Energy Balance (% GDP)Energy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | +47.54% | -4.2% | |
| Colombia | +26.54% | +3.5% | |
| Greece | +20.39% | -2.4% | |
| South Korea | +19.78% | -5.7% | |
| Poland | +16.47% | -1.7% | |
| Singapore | +14.01% | -5.1% | |
| Austria | +13.64% | -1.6% | |
| United States | +11.04% | +0.2% | |
| Ireland | +9.51% | -1.1% | |
| Finland | +7.92% | -1.5% | |
| New Zealand | +6.70% | -2.1% | |
| Norway | +6.41% | +19.1% | |
| Spain | +5.84% | -1.8% | |
| Denmark | +5.71% | -0.5% | |
| Israel | +5.03% | -0.7% | |
| Japan | +5.01% | -3.6% | |
| Italy | +4.74% | -2.0% | |
| Canada | +3.86% | +4.6% | |
| Argentina | +2.97% | +0.6% | |
| Saudi Arabia | +0.70% | +15.9% | |
| United Kingdom | -2.90% | -1.1% | |
| Brazil | -3.12% | +1.0% | |
| Peru | -3.29% | -1.4% | |
| Thailand | -3.72% | -7.4% | |
| Australia | -4.45% | +3.9% | |
| Germany | -4.94% | -1.5% | |
| Malaysia | -6.57% | -0.3% | |
| Sweden | -6.74% | -0.8% | |
| Hong Kong | -7.27% | -3.1% | |
| Vietnam | -7.60% | -4.8% | |
| Switzerland | -7.74% | -0.6% | |
| China | -7.94% | -2.2% | |
| India | -8.13% | -3.2% | |
| Turkey | -8.25% | -3.1% | |
| France | -8.69% | -1.7% | |
| Chile | -9.31% | -3.8% | |
| Mexico | -9.39% | -0.1% | |
| South Africa | -16.07% | -2.0% | |
| Indonesia | -30.02% | +1.0% |
Worst Performing Country ETFs: Week of March 2
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| Rank | Country | ETF | 1-Week Return | YTD Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇮🇱 Israel | EIS | -4.93% | +3.84% |
| 2 | 🇰🇷 South Korea | EWY | -3.54% | +24.80% |
| 3 | 🇨🇱 Chile | ECH | -2.14% | -4.15% |
| 4 | 🇳🇿 New Zealand | ENZL | -1.27% | -6.28% |
| 5 | 🇮🇳 India | INDA | -1.61% | -15.19% |
| 6 | 🇳🇴 Norway | ENOR | -0.62% | +21.75% |
Israel's -4.93% weekly decline is both the worst in the universe this week and the most direct conflict-exposure data point in the dataset. The iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) is tracking the escalation of direct Iran-Israel military exchanges — including Iran's attempted missile strike on the Diego Garcia US base, reported by CNBC. EIS is down +3.84% YTD (positive, because it started the year strongly before the war) but is now absorbing direct country-level conflict risk that no other market in the universe carries in the same concentrated form.
South Korea's -3.54% continues its pattern of correcting from a pre-war overshoot. EWY reached +35% YTD in late February on Samsung and SK Hynix HBM contract euphoria and has since corrected to +24.80% YTD. The weekly decline this week was not driven by fresh negative news on semiconductors — it reflects continued unwinding of the overbought pre-war position as semiconductor investors rotate toward cheaper entries.
Norway's -0.62% is the most significant single data point in the week from a rotation perspective. The iShares MSCI Norway ETF (ENOR) has been the dominant weekly winner in every single week since the war began. Its first negative week — even a modest -0.62% — signals that the "pure oil exporter" trade has moved from momentum to consolidation. The structural thesis (gas supply to Europe) remains intact; the trade is simply crowded.
Macro Drivers of the Wee
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Iran rejects ceasefire, sets five conditions. NPR's March 25 report confirmed that Iran's counter-proposal requires war reparations, recognition of Iran's sovereign rights over its nuclear program, and removal of all sanctions — conditions that the Trump administration has publicly rejected. The rejection keeps the war's duration uncertain but reduces the probability of sudden, unexpected resolution, which has actually been supportive for commodity markets by preventing a sharp oil price correction.
Trump's contradictory signals. The combination of "winding down" rhetoric and power plant threats reflects a US administration that has not settled on its endgame. Fortune's analysis noted that $200 billion has been spent over three weeks with the primary objective — Hormuz reopening — not yet achieved. The uncertainty premium remains embedded in oil prices and in country ETF spreads.
SPY continues its 2026 underperformance. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at -6.13% YTD is now one of the worst-performing developed market country ETFs in the universe — a data point that would have seemed implausible at the start of 2026. The combination of energy import costs, Fed rate hike probability at 50% by October, and trade policy uncertainty has created a macro environment where US equities are not the safe harbour they represented in 2024 and 2025. Country ETF diversification is providing genuine portfolio benefit in 2026, not theoretical benefit.
YTD Scoreboard: March 27, 202
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Top 5 YTD performers:
| Country | ETF | YTD Return |
|---|---|---|
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | EWY | +24.80% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | ENOR | +21.75% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | EWZ | +15.96% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | TUR | +10.02% |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | THD | +11.51% |
Bottom 5 YTD performers:
| Country | ETF | YTD Return |
|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | EIDO | -17.51% |
| 🇮🇳 India | INDA | -15.19% |
| 🇻🇳 Vietnam | VNM | -12.29% |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | EDEN | -12.58% |
| 🇺🇸 S&P 500 | SPY | -6.13% |
Key Takeaway
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Brazil is the rotation's new anchor. EWZ has moved from a secondary commodity play to the primary rotation leader this week, replacing ENOR as the highest-conviction weekly performer. Its combination of oil (Petrobras), base metals (Vale) and domestic growth (Nubank, Itaú) makes it the broadest commodity basket in the universe — and the only major country ETF that is structurally positive in both war and ceasefire scenarios.
UAE's bounce is the most important signal for ceasefire traders. When the most penalised conflict-zone market begins to outperform the most insulated exporter, the rotation is pricing wind-down probability. This is new data this week.
ENOR's first negative week is a rotation warning. Not a reversal — the structural thesis is intact — but a signal that the marginal trade has shifted. Monitor ENOR's weekly returns as the leading indicator of how much ceasefire probability the market is embedding in oil-linked country ETFs.
SPY -6.13% YTD is 2026's most underappreciated data point. The S&P 500 is underperforming the MSCI ACWI (-4.20%) and most European country ETFs on a YTD basis. US equity exceptionalism has not survived the combination of energy shock and Fed rate hike repricing.
Track all 43 country ETFs in real time at countryetftracker.com. Use the Compare Tool to model any custom date range across the full universe.
Frequently Asked Question
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What was the best performing country ETF this week (March 27)?
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) gained +5.08% in the week ending March 27, 2026, the best performance in the country ETF universe. The gain was driven by Brazil's Ibovespa crossing 185,000 on ceasefire hopes, Petrobras strength on Brent above $100 and a broad commodity market recovery.
What was the worst performing country ETF this week?
The iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) fell -4.93% — the worst weekly performance in the universe — as Iran-Israel military exchanges escalated following Iran's attempted missile strike on the Diego Garcia US base.
Why is Norway (ENOR) down this week after leading since the war began?
ENOR's -0.62% weekly decline reflects the market beginning to price Trump's "winding down" language as a partial resolution signal. With the oil price moderating slightly and ceasefire speculation increasing, the marginal buyer in the pure oil exporter trade stepped back this week. ENOR remains the YTD leader at +21.75% but has entered a consolidation phase.
Why is the S&P 500 one of the worst YTD performers in 2026?
SPY is down -6.13% YTD, underperforming the MSCI ACWI (-4.20%) and most major country ETFs. The combination of oil shock inflation, Fed rate hike probability at 50% by October, trade policy uncertainty and deteriorating corporate earnings guidance has ended US equity exceptionalism in the current macro regime.