The iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA) has lost -22.68% since US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran on February 27, 2026 — the worst performance of any country ETF in the universe over that period. No other market in the 43-country universe tracked by CountryETFTracker.com has declined by more since the war began, surpassing even the energy import-dependent markets of South Korea (-16.7%) and Indonesia (-13.5%) that have attracted the most attention as war casualties.

According to Country ETF Tracker data, EZA's -22.68% decline since February 27 reflects the convergence of three simultaneous shocks — each severe enough to damage EZA individually, and together producing a drawdown that is in a different category from the rest of the emerging market universe. South Africa is a net energy importer absorbing rising fuel costs. It is the world's largest producer of platinum and palladium, whose prices have collapsed in March to their worst monthly performance in years. And gold — the commodity that defines the top of EZA's equity portfolio — has posted its worst monthly return since October 2008.

This review explains why EZA has been hit harder than any other country ETF, what the portfolio structure reveals about the damage, and what the path forward looks like from current valuation levels.

What Is the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA)

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The iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA) tracks the MSCI South Africa 25/50 Index, providing exposure to large- and mid-cap South African equities listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Managed by BlackRock with an expense ratio of 0.59%, the fund holds 33 securities — one of the most concentrated portfolios in the country ETF universe — and currently trades at $63.09.

South Africa is a commodity economy with a large financial services sector and an increasingly prominent technology and media component through Naspers and its subsidiaries. Mining — gold, platinum group metals, coal and iron ore — has historically been the dominant driver of South African equity market returns, and remains embedded at the top of EZA's portfolio despite the deliberate diversification that has occurred over the past decade.

Key Fact

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EZA Performance: The Worst Country ETF Since the War Bega

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The -22.68% decline since February 27 places EZA in a category of its own in the current market environment. The next-worst performers since the war began — South Korea (EWY) at approximately -16.7% and Indonesia (EIDO) at approximately -13.5% — are primarily suffering from a single factor: energy import dependence. South Africa is suffering from three simultaneous factor shocks, which is why its drawdown exceeds theirs by a wide margin.

The YTD figure of -8.30% tells a different story: it shows that EZA had already given up gains relative to the start of the year before the war began, and that the -22.68% war-period decline is almost entirely concentrated in the post-February 27 window. The divergence between -8.30% YTD and -22.68% since February 27 implies EZA was modestly positive heading into the conflict — making the subsequent collapse even more abrupt.

The gap between EZA (-22.68%) and EWY (-16.7%) since the war began — approximately six percentage points — is the quantitative signature of the precious metals collapse. South Korea is a pure energy importer play. South Africa is an energy importer plus the world's dominant platinum and palladium producer, plus a significant gold producer, all simultaneously experiencing commodity price declines of historic severity.

The Triple Shock: Three Simultaneous Headwind

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Shock 1: Energy Import Dependenc

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South Africa imports the majority of its crude oil requirements and has limited domestic production. The Hormuz disruption since February 27 has driven Brent crude above $104 per barrel, directly increasing fuel costs for South African consumers, industry and government. South Africa partially subsidises fuel prices, meaning the fiscal cost of elevated oil also falls on government accounts that are already under pressure from a structurally high debt-to-GDP ratio.

The rand's exposure amplifies the energy import cost. Oil is priced in US dollars. When the rand weakens against the dollar simultaneously with an oil price spike, the local currency cost of energy imports rises by the multiplicative effect of both moves — a compound headwind that energy-importing emerging markets face more acutely than developed markets.

Shock 2: The Historic Precious Metals Collaps

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This is the factor that separates EZA from every other energy-importing country ETF in the universe, and it requires specific quantification.

Gold has lost approximately -12% month-to-date as of March 20 — on pace for its worst monthly performance since October 2008, when the global financial crisis triggered a wave of forced deleveraging across commodity markets. For the week ending March 20, gold slumped approximately -9% — its worst weekly performance since 1983. The driver is the dollar's strength, rising real yields as Fed rate hike probability has surged to 50% by October, and a risk-on reversal as investors liquidated safe-haven positions following Monday's temporary de-escalation in Iranian drone activity.

Platinum has declined approximately -17% month-to-date as of March 20. South Africa produces approximately 75% of the world's platinum — a physical concentration of supply that makes the South African mining sector uniquely exposed to platinum price movements. Platinum's decline reflects both the stronger dollar and concerns that the Hormuz disruption is dampening global industrial and automotive demand, which is the primary end-use for platinum in catalytic converter manufacturing.

Palladium has declined approximately -20% month-to-date as of March 20 — the sharpest of the three PGM declines. South Africa and Russia together account for approximately 85% of global palladium supply. Palladium's collapse reflects a similar combination of dollar strength and demand concern, compounded by accelerating electric vehicle adoption that reduces the long-run palladium requirement for internal combustion engine catalytic converters.

The combined effect on EZA is direct and mechanical: the fund holds AngloGold Ashanti (ANG.JO) at 11.7%, Gold Fields (GFI.JO) at 9.9% and Impala Platinum (IMP.JO) at 3.9% — together representing approximately 25.5% of the fund in companies whose revenues are almost entirely determined by the prices of gold, platinum and palladium. When all three collapse simultaneously, a quarter of EZA's portfolio is repriced downward by 12–20% within the space of three weeks.

Shock 3: Rand Depreciatio

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The South African rand has depreciated approximately -1% against the US dollar in March, falling to approximately 17 ZAR per USD — the lowest level since December 2025. For US-listed ETF investors, rand depreciation translates directly into dollar returns: a South African equity unchanged in rand terms delivers a negative dollar return to an EZA holder when the rand weakens.

The 17 ZAR/USD level is not yet at historical stress levels — the rand has traded as weak as 19–20 during prior crisis periods — but the direction of travel is important. A strengthening dollar environment (driven by rising Fed hike probability) combined with a risk-off emerging market context creates structural pressure for further rand depreciation. Each additional percentage point of rand weakness against the dollar amplifies the USD-denominated losses in EZA by a corresponding amount.

Top Holdings: Where the Damage Is Concentrate

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EZA holds only 33 securities — one of the most concentrated portfolios in the country ETF universe. The top ten positions represent approximately 65% of total fund weight.

AngloGold Ashanti (11.7%) and Gold Fields (9.9%) — combined 21.6% of the fund — are both pure-play gold miners. Their revenues are almost entirely determined by the US dollar gold price, and their costs are predominantly in South African rand. A gold price decline of -12% in dollar terms translates directly into proportional revenue compression. If gold recovers toward $3,000/oz from its March lows, these two positions alone could drive a significant EZA recovery.

Naspers (10.9%) is EZA's technology and media anchor — its valuation is driven primarily by its stake in Tencent rather than South African fundamentals. In a rising rate environment (Fed hike probability at 50% by October), high-growth, high-multiple businesses face multiple compression pressure that flows through to Naspers' own discount-to-NAV dynamics.

Impala Platinum (3.9%) is the direct PGM exposure. With palladium down -20% and platinum down -17%, Impala's revenue per ounce of production has collapsed even before factoring in the energy cost increase on South Africa's electricity-intensive platinum smelting operations.

The banking cluster — FirstRand (6.7%), Standard Bank (5.1%), Capitec (4.2%), Absa (3.4%) — collectively represents approximately 19.4% of the fund. South African banks are exposed to the triple shock through rising non-performing loans as consumers absorb higher energy costs, and rand depreciation that impairs the dollar value of their rand-denominated assets from EZA's perspective.

Valuation: Is EZA Cheap Enough

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EZA trades at 11.07x forward P/E — a 41.2% discount to the MSCI ACWI at 18.83x. The 6.73% dividend yield is the highest of any emerging market country ETF in the universe tracked on CountryETFTracker.com. At $63.09, the elevated yield partly reflects mechanical expansion from price decline — the yield has risen as EZA's price has fallen.

The valuation case is straightforward in structure: at 11.07x, the market is pricing in a prolonged period of weak gold and PGM prices, continued energy cost headwinds and rand depreciation. If any of the three shocks reverses — gold recovers, a ceasefire reduces oil prices, or the dollar softens — EZA's multiple would likely re-rate sharply from a depressed base.

Seasonality: April Is EZA's Strongest Mont

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EZA's 20-year seasonality data provides an important timing signal. March has historically averaged +2.04% for EZA — yet 2026's March return of -13.58% is one of the most extreme negative outliers in the entire dataset, reflecting the severity of the current commodity and macro shock overriding seasonal patterns entirely.

April is EZA's seasonally strongest month by win rate: an average return of +1.89% with an 80% win rate over 20 years — positive in 16 of the last 20 Aprils. That is the highest monthly win rate in EZA's entire seasonal calendar. Historically, April seasonal strength has been associated with the Q1 earnings season and a typical post-March commodity recovery pattern. Whether it materialises in 2026 depends on whether any of the three shocks abates — most critically whether gold and the PGMs find a floor.

Key Risk

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Extended PGM price weakness is the primary structural risk. Platinum and palladium have been under secular pressure from electric vehicle adoption trends even before the current month's cyclical decline. If the March selloff reflects a genuine acceleration in the EV transition narrative rather than a temporary risk-off move, the recovery in Impala Platinum may be slower than the seasonal pattern suggests.

Rand depreciation beyond 17 ZAR/USD would amplify losses for USD-denominated EZA holders without any corresponding change in JSE-listed stock prices. The rand's trajectory depends on the dollar's direction, South Africa's current account deficit and emerging market risk appetite — all currently unfavourable.

Gold price headwind from rising real yields: The -12% MTD gold decline has been driven by real yield increases as Fed hike probability has surged to 50% by October. If the Fed does hike — or if market pricing moves further in that direction — the real yield headwind for gold would persist and EZA's two largest positions would remain under pressure.

Load-shedding and energy infrastructure: South Africa's Eskom electricity grid has been structurally under-invested and prone to rolling blackouts for years. Elevated global energy prices increase the cost of South Africa's electricity generation. Higher energy input costs for mining operations directly compress margins at PGM and gold miners, amplifying the commodity price decline effect.

Conclusio

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The iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA) is the worst-performing country ETF since the Iran war began for a reason structurally distinct from all other underperformers in the universe. It is not a simple energy import story. EZA is the intersection of three simultaneous shocks: energy imports, a historic collapse in precious metals (gold -12% MTD, its worst since October 2008; platinum -17%; palladium -20%), and rand depreciation. The portfolio's 21.6% weight in pure gold miners and 3.9% in Impala Platinum means approximately one quarter of the fund is directly exposed to the commodity price collapse.

At 11.07x forward P/E, a 6.73% dividend yield and -8.30% YTD, the valuation is deeply depressed. April is seasonally EZA's strongest month by win rate (80% over 20 years). The question for investors is whether the three shocks driving the current drawdown will abate fast enough for the seasonal tailwind to matter.

Track EZA live and compare it against the full country ETF universe at countryetftracker.com. Use the Compare Tool to model EZA against energy importers and exporters from February 27.

Frequently Asked Question

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Why is EZA the worst performing country ETF since the Iran war began?

South Africa faces three simultaneous shocks: energy import costs from Hormuz disruption, a historic precious metals collapse (gold -12% MTD — worst since October 2008, platinum -17%, palladium -20%), and rand depreciation to 17 ZAR/USD. The combination is unique in the country ETF universe — other underperformers absorb only the energy factor, while EZA absorbs all three simultaneously through its mining-heavy portfolio.

What is EZA's YTD return vs its return since the Iran war began?

EZA is down -8.30% year-to-date as of March 20, 2026, but has fallen -22.68% since February 27 — the day before the war began. The divergence confirms that EZA entered the conflict modestly positive for the year and that virtually the entire damage was inflicted in the post-war period.

What are EZA's largest holdings and how are they affected?

AngloGold Ashanti (11.7%) and Gold Fields (9.9%) together represent 21.6% of the fund and are pure-play gold miners directly impacted by gold's -12% monthly decline. Impala Platinum (3.9%) is exposed to platinum (-17% MTD) and palladium (-20% MTD). The banking cluster (FirstRand, Standard Bank, Capitec, Absa — ~19.4% combined) is exposed to rand depreciation and rising non-performing loan risk.

What is EZA's dividend yield and valuation?

EZA trades at 11.07x forward P/E — a 41.2% discount to the MSCI ACWI at 18.83x — and offers a 6.73% dividend yield at $63.09, the highest yield among major emerging market country ETFs.

What is EZA's seasonal pattern for April?

April is EZA's strongest month by win rate over 20 years: +1.89% average return, positive in 16 of the last 20 Aprils (80% win rate). Whether this seasonal tailwind materialises in 2026 depends on whether any of EZA's three simultaneous headwinds — precious metals prices, energy costs, rand depreciation — shows meaningful recovery.