At 9:27 AM ET on April 17, 2026, President Trump posted on Truth Social in all-caps: "THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE." By 10:40 AM, he followed with: "Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World!"
The market response was immediate and global. Oil fell 13% in a single session — Reuters: "Oil falls by 13% after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open." The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,000 points. The S&P 500 extended its all-time high streak. And for the first time since the war began on February 27, the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) traded at all-time highs, fully erasing every war-related loss and surpassing its pre-war peak.
Ten country ETFs reached record highs on Friday.
What Happened This Morning
The sequence of Trump's Truth Social posts between 9:06 AM and 10:40 AM ET tells the full story in real time:
- 9:06 AM: "IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE."
- 9:27 AM: "THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS... THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE."
- 9:57 AM: Confirmed the US will receive all nuclear "dust" from B2 bomber strikes. Announced Iran removing all sea mines. Stated Israel is "PROHIBITED" from bombing Lebanon.
- 10:16 AM: Thanked Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar.
- 10:30 AM: Thanked Pakistan's Prime Minister.
- 10:40 AM: "Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again."
Reuters confirmed: "Trump says blockade on Iran 'in full force' until deal is reached" — meaning the Hormuz reopening is commercial traffic only, while the naval blockade on Iranian shipping specifically continues pending formal deal completion. The AP reported: "Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz as U.S. blockade remains." Politico: "Strait of Hormuz reopening for commercial traffic, Trump and Iran say."
The structural interpretation: the worst-case energy supply scenario — 12 million barrels per day removed from markets — has been resolved. The formal peace deal terms are still being finalized, but the physical bottleneck is gone.
Country ETF Scorecard — April 17, 2026
| ETF | Country | Today | Last Price | vs ATH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWY | 🇰🇷 South Korea | +4.62% | $154.28 | Record High |
| EZA | 🇿🇦 South Africa | +4.61% | $75.56 | -7.6% |
| UAE | 🇦🇪 UAE | +3.37% | $20.46 | -8.2% |
| EIRL | 🇮🇪 Ireland | +3.31% | $75.27 | -2.5% |
| EWT | 🇹🇼 Taiwan | +3.13% | $83.90 | Record High |
| INDA | 🇮🇳 India | +3.09% | $51.55 | -13.4% |
| EIS | 🇮🇱 Israel | +2.86% | $129.96 | Record High |
| EWG | 🇩🇪 Germany | +2.80% | $43.55 | -2.5% |
| EWD | 🇸🇪 Sweden | +2.70% | $54.73 | -0.4% |
| EWO | 🇦🇹 Austria | +2.67% | $40.37 | Record High |
| EWK | 🇧🇪 Belgium | +2.42% | $26.82 | -2.9% |
| GREK | 🇬🇷 Greece | +2.39% | $73.30 | -5.1% |
| TUR | 🇹🇷 Turkey | +2.39% | $43.33 | -8.1% |
| EWQ | 🇫🇷 France | +2.38% | $47.16 | -2.6% |
| EPOL | 🇵🇱 Poland | +2.37% | $40.88 | Record High |
| EWL | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | +2.28% | $62.51 | -4.6% |
| EWP | 🇪🇸 Spain | +2.25% | $58.66 | -0.3% |
| THD | 🇹🇭 Thailand | +2.17% | $72.38 | -31.6% |
| EWN | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | +2.15% | $64.48 | Record High |
| EWI | 🇮🇹 Italy | +1.90% | $58.99 | -0.3% |
| EWM | 🇲🇾 Malaysia | +1.82% | $29.30 | -19.9% |
| EWJ | 🇯🇵 Japan | +1.69% | $90.92 | -3.6% |
| VNM | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | +1.68% | $19.04 | -12.1% |
| EIDO | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | +1.54% | $16.47 | -46.2% |
| EWS | 🇸🇬 Singapore | +1.53% | $29.59 | -0.3% |
| EPU | 🇵🇪 Peru | +1.52% | $85.94 | -9.8% |
| EWA | 🇦🇺 Australia | +1.52% | $30.39 | -0.3% |
| GXC | 🇨🇳 China | +1.50% | $98.40 | -37.0% |
| ECH | 🇨🇱 Chile | +1.30% | $44.90 | -20.6% |
| EFNL | 🇫🇮 Finland | +1.26% | $53.91 | Record High |
| SPY | 🇺🇸 United States | +1.25% | $710.46 | Record High |
| EWC | 🇨🇦 Canada | +1.16% | $58.66 | Record High |
| EDEN | 🇩🇰 Denmark | +1.11% | $113.05 | -14.6% |
| KSA | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | +0.98% | $40.77 | -20.3% |
| EWH | 🇭🇰 Hong Kong | +0.75% | $23.57 | -16.3% |
| EWU | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | +0.74% | $48.20 | -1.5% |
| EWW | 🇲🇽 Mexico | +0.54% | $79.44 | -2.7% |
| QAT | 🇶🇦 Qatar | +0.47% | $19.39 | -24.6% |
| KWT | 🇰🇼 Kuwait | +0.28% | $38.94 | -5.2% |
| ENZL | 🇳🇿 New Zealand | +0.09% | $44.74 | -37.6% |
| COLO | 🇨🇴 Colombia | -0.15% | $41.19 | -77.6% |
| ARGT | 🇦🇷 Argentina | -0.23% | $93.95 | -9.6% |
| EWZ | 🇧🇷 Brazil | -0.43% | $41.29 | -14.8% |
| ENOR | 🇳🇴 Norway | -2.00% | $36.28 | -4.5% |
Intraday data April 17, 2026. All prices in USD.
The 10 Country ETFs at Record Highs Today
South Korea (EWY) — +4.62% — $154.28 — ALL-TIME HIGH
This is the headline of the day. EWY has completely erased every war-related loss and traded beyond its pre-war peak — a full round trip from the February 27 war start, through the March trough (-18.74% in a single month), and now to new all-time highs. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF tracks the MSCI Korea Index — dominated by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, LG Electronics and POSCO. All four benefit directly from the Hormuz reopening: energy costs normalize, semiconductor export logistics stabilize, and the Korean won strengthens against the USD. EWY at $154.28 trades at 7.08x forward P/E — still 58.6% below the MSCI ACWI multiple despite hitting all-time price highs.
Taiwan (EWT) — +3.13% — $83.90 — ALL-TIME HIGH
The iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) hit a new all-time high of $83.90, extending the AI semiconductor rally that has driven the ETF throughout 2026. Taiwan's war-period losses were always modest relative to Korea given TSMC's structural demand from hyperscalers — but the Hormuz reopening removes the residual energy cost uncertainty that had kept the ETF below its prior peak.
Israel (EIS) — +2.86% — $129.96 — ALL-TIME HIGH
The iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) reaching an all-time high on the day Hormuz reopens is analytically significant. Trump's Truth Social posts explicitly stated: "Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A." The dual de-escalation — Iran war winding down and a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced simultaneously — removes two concurrent geopolitical risk premia from Israeli equities in a single session.
Netherlands (EWN), Poland (EPOL), Finland (EFNL), Austria (EWO), Sweden (EWD), Canada (EWC), SPY — All-Time Highs
The breadth of record highs across developed market ETFs — from small European markets (Austria, Finland) to major ones (SPY, Canada) — confirms this is not a narrow sector rally. It is a synchronized global repricing of geopolitical risk.
Country ETF Performance vs Energy Trade Balance
Correlation: 0.000 | Since 2026-02-27
The One ETF That Fell: Norway (ENOR, -2.00%)
The iShares MSCI Norway ETF (ENOR) is the only country ETF in negative territory today, down -2.00% to $36.28. This is the textbook inversion of the energy exporter trade.
During the war, ENOR was one of the strongest performers — Brent above $100 directly boosted Equinor's upstream revenue expectations. Today, oil falling 13% reverses that logic completely. Brent dropping toward $80-85 compresses Equinor's forward earnings materially. ENOR's -2.00% underperformance against a market broadly up +1-4% represents a 6 percentage point daily relative return swing — the clearest single-day expression of the energy exporter/importer narrative inverting.
Saudi Arabia (KSA, +0.98%) is the other notable underperformer among energy markets — gaining, but far less than the global average. The market is repricing KSA's oil revenue assumptions in real time as Brent falls.
Polymarket: Peace Deal Odds Surge in Hours
The Hormuz reopening has produced one of the most rapid probability shifts in Polymarket's history for the US-Iran deal markets. As of mid-afternoon April 17:
| Market | Yesterday | Today |
|---|---|---|
| Deal by April 22 | 15.5% | 42.5% |
| Deal by April 30 | 32.5% | 62.5% |
| Deal by May 31 | 48.5% | 73.5% |
| Deal by June 30 | 63.5% | 80.5% |
The April 22 market moved from 15.5% to 42.5% in hours — the fastest single-day move recorded in this contract. The deal by April 30 is now the majority outcome at 62.5%. The structural framework is clear from Trump's posts: the US will receive Iran's nuclear material ("all Nuclear Dust, created by our great B2 Bombers"), the blockade on Iranian shipping continues until the transaction is complete, and Iran has committed to permanent Hormuz openness.
Additional Polymarket context:
- US recession by end-2026: now 25.5% — down from 28% yesterday and down from 36% at the peak of the war
- Kharg Island remains under Iranian control: 97% probability — the naval situation is unresolved but commercially irrelevant now that Hormuz is open for commercial traffic
What the Hormuz Reopening Changes — and What It Doesn't
What changes immediately:
The 12-million-barrels-per-day supply disruption — what the IEA called "the largest energy supply disruption in modern history" — is resolved for commercial shipping. Tankers can transit. LNG carriers can transit. Container ships can transit. The energy import cost shock that drove Korea (-18.74% in March), Japan, India and Thailand lower is no longer a live threat.
What doesn't change yet:
The US naval blockade on Iranian shipping specifically remains "in full force and effect" until the formal transaction is 100% complete. Iran's nuclear material transfer is in progress but not complete. The peace deal — now at 62.5% probability by April 30 — has not been signed. Reuters confirmed: "Trump says blockade on Iran 'in full force' until deal is reached."
This creates a narrow but real risk window: if the deal mechanics break down before completion, the naval blockade remains, even as Hormuz is commercially open. The market is pricing the deal completion as likely (62.5% by April 30, 73.5% by May 31) but not certain.
The energy importer recovery trade:
India (INDA, +3.09%) and Thailand (THD, +2.17%) are the two most notable relative beneficiaries today among markets that are still significantly below their all-time highs (-13.4% and -31.6% respectively). With Hormuz open and oil falling 13%, the forward energy import cost assumptions for both economies shift materially. Both remain well below pre-war peaks — the recovery from war lows has begun but is far from complete, creating the longest runway for further gains among all country ETFs.
The complete live performance data — updated in real time — is at countryetftracker.com. Compare the full ceasefire-to-Hormuz-opening performance at countryetftracker.com/compare.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is South Korea (EWY) the top performer today despite the Hormuz opening being positive for all energy importers?
EWY combines the largest energy import sensitivity (Korea imports 98% of its energy) with the deepest war-period losses and the cheapest valuation (7.08x forward P/E). Today's +4.62% adds to the +26.6% already delivered since March 30, bringing EWY to all-time highs. The simultaneity of war resolution, AI semiconductor earnings acceleration and extreme valuation compression creates a more concentrated positive catalyst for Korea than for any other energy importer.
Why is Norway (ENOR) falling when everything else is rising?
ENOR tracks Norway's equity market, which is dominated by Equinor — Europe's largest oil and gas producer. When Hormuz reopens and oil falls 13%, Equinor's forward revenue assumptions decline directly. ENOR's -2.00% today against a market broadly up +1-4% is the cleanest expression of the energy exporter trade fully inverting. The Hormuz closure was structurally bullish for ENOR; its reopening is structurally bearish.
What is the significance of Iran agreeing to "never close the Strait of Hormuz again"?
If formalized in a binding agreement, it would represent a permanent structural change to the global energy risk premium. The Hormuz risk has been priced into global oil markets for decades — not just in 2026. A permanent legal commitment backed by US naval enforcement would compress the Hormuz risk premium from energy prices on a structural basis, potentially pushing Brent back toward $70-75 over time rather than just during peacetime.
Which country ETFs still have the most distance to recover to their all-time highs?
Indonesia (EIDO, -46.2% from ATH), Colombia (COLO, -77.6%), New Zealand (ENZL, -37.6%), China (GXC, -37.0%), Thailand (THD, -31.6%) and Qatar (QAT, -24.6%) are the furthest from all-time highs. Of these, Thailand and Indonesia have the most direct recovery case from the Hormuz reopening given their energy import dependence.